Whisper numbers for 2025 signal a new chapter for startups: growth is reaccelerating, but this time with a sharp focus on maintaining—and in many cases improving—operating efficiency. Just two years ago in 2023, growth rates hit a period of rapid slowdown, with signs of recovery only beginning in Q423. Since then, the momentum has shifted. Growth is back on the rise, and startups are proving that they can scale without sacrificing efficiency. There are still a lot of factors in play—some AI startups are playing a different game more akin to SaaS of the past, not to mention the geopolitical climate—but we can say pretty confidently that how you build a winning company has changed.
Some key facts from our whisper numbers:
- ARR Growth: Growth rates are forecasted to reaccelerate in 2025. The median company is looking to move from 27% to 54% while the top decile is looking to move from 166% to 199%.
- Burn Multiple: Burn multiples are forecasted to drop across the board (lower is better). Top decile is converging on profitability while the median is trading a dollar of burn for a dollar of ARR.
And while we know that these whisper numbers can be aggressive, to the tune of 30% in some cases, the direction of these early numbers provide hope that we’ll continue to see improvements in growth rate alongside reduction in burn.
2024 in review: Lessons learned
Looking back at 2024, the whisper numbers painted an optimistic picture, but actual performance was a mixed bag. The top decile blew past expectations, forecasting a 166% ARR growth rate compared to the forecasted 98%. The top quartile largely came in line with the most recent forecast of 69% compared with a 64% whisper number. However, the median growth rate fell short, landing at 27%, far short of the 37% whisper number. These results highlight a widening gap between the highest performing companies and the rest of the field. Overall, 2024 demonstrated that while growth reacceleration is achievable, it’s not evenly distributed and operating efficiency remains a critical differentiator.
In our 2024 whisper numbers, we noted that we’d already started seeing reacceleration across our portfolio. That has largely been borne out. While 2024 plans were revised down from initial whisper numbers in all except the top decile, companies are projected to have delivered on ARR growth reacceleration across the board, with corresponding performance in GAAP revenue. This growth was paired with burn multiple improvements, with 2024 projected to land at a median of 2.3, down from 3.3 the previous year.
Looking ahead to 2025
In the year ahead, startups are showing optimism with a healthy dose of realism. For most, slowly accelerating growth while marching towards profitability is the new way to build a company. The whisper numbers do not show explosive growth, but if companies execute against them, they will stay on track for a solid outcome.
- The efficiency mandate: The “year of efficiency” in 2023 was a wake-up call. By 2024, efficiency gains were no longer optional, and that trend will continue in 2025.
- A new era of startup building: Easy money made prioritizing growth over profitability tempting, but those days are over. The new gold standard is balancing growth with efficiency, building durable businesses instead of just raising the next round.
Final thoughts
Taking the long view, we believe that our current state is not a crash but a correction. It’s hard to focus on the efficiency side while there’s so much expectation on the growth side. But, without explosive growth numbers, companies were not considered venture-viable, no matter how efficiently they were running. In this chapter, sustainable growth isn’t just a strategy – it’s the path forward.
To kick off annual planning, we share an early view of what we’re seeing in early-stage startups to give a sense of what’s to come next year. We hope these “whisper numbers” can help you calibrate your 2025 plan and give you a relative sense of what direction startups are headed in next year (you can see the 2024 numbers here).
